Weather and Climate Prediction

HDR meteorologists have more than two decades of experience helping the insurance, energy and water supply communities adapt to the earth’s ever-changing weather patterns. We can help our clients anticipate change and adjust a strategic business outlook to stay one step ahead of the weather.

The ability to anticipate significant weather swings from coast to coast has never been more important to efficient and reliable energy delivery. We specialize in preparing severe and extreme weather hazard outlooks, along with evaluating the potential for hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, floods and droughts. Energy suppliers use our insight to plan for extreme heat waves and cold spells, to alter delivery strategies and ensure adequate supplies are available.

Water suppliers have long relied on climate outlooks prepared by HDR meteorologists, ranging from one month to five-year projections. Our basin-specific water supply outlooks provide snow water equivalent forecasts of snowpack, temporal and volumetric runoff timing, and estimates of evaporative and soil moisture losses.

When a community depends on recreational features to sustain its economic base, adverse weather can wreak havoc on local businesses and residents. The small towns that dot the shoreline of Montana’s Flathead Lake are strongly affected by weather fluctuations and drought years can put a damaging dent in the estimated annual income of $300 million from recreational lake use. HDR’s Drought Mitigation Plan for the lake assessed the cause-effect of extreme meteorological and hydrological factors in the basin by examining historic climate records to predict the frequency of extreme drought conditions and analyzing climatic indicators to link with seasonal stream flow. HDR’s January to April forecasts of drought and snow melt runoff were 90 percent accurate while those issued from October to December were more than 75 percent accurate, significantly improving on alternative forecasts.

 

Water Supply:

• Flathead Lake, MT (DMP - Water Supply) Component – HDR ASG derived a water supply forecast and monitoring index for an integrated Drought Management Plan (DMP).  This index is the ‘triggering’ mechanism for prescribed actions for the DMP.
• Colorado River Water Conservation District – HDR ASG examined the connections between standard hydro-climate indices and observed environmental components of the water supply and demand system.  The information is used to assist in anticipating the various components of the hydrologic cycle in basins across the state.
• Strategic Water Supply Decision Tool (coming soon)

 

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and Construction Site Forecast:

• Holcim Concrete Pre-Heater Tower Wind Forecasting  - HDR ASG provided detailed site-specific forecasts for a very weather sensitive construction project.  HDR ASG forecasts cut down on ‘false alarms’ and provided timely warnings to improve project efficiency.
• Flood Treat Bulletin (FTB) and Statewide Precipitation Product (SWP) – Statewide daily outlook detailing the threat for flooding across Colorado.  Product outlines heavy rainfall probabilities and amounts designed for the Emergency Management and Public Works Communities.  Detailed radar and observation-based assessment of prior day’s precipitation is also produced.

 

Weather Hazard and Extreme Event Outlook:

• Costilla County Drought Management Plan – Climate index and observationally based planning tool to help rural county take action ahead of drought conditions.  Hydro-climate indicies such as El Nino/La Nina, ect. are included to provide a tool to anticipate drought and undertake subtle actions.
• Benton County Hazard Mitigation Plan – (Coming soon)